The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease
Identifieur interne : 003C66 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003C65; suivant : 003C67The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease
Auteurs : Martin Camitz [Suède] ; Fredrik Liljeros [Suède]Source :
- BMC Medicine [ 1741-7015 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
Much research in epidemiology has been focused on evaluating conventional methods of control strategies in the event of an epidemic or pandemic. Travel restrictions are often suggested as an efficient way to reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health, but few papers have studied in depth the effects of travel restrictions. In this study, we investigated what effect different levels of travel restrictions might have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
We used a stochastic simulation model incorporating survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over 3 years. We tested scenarios of travel restrictions in which travel over distances >50 km and 20 km would be banned, taking into account different levels of compliance.
We found that a ban on journeys >50 km would drastically reduce the speed and geographical spread of outbreaks, even when compliance is < 100%. The result was found to be robust for different rates of intermunicipality transmission intensities.
This study supports travel restrictions as an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future disease outbreak.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/1741-7015-4-32
PubMed: 17166291
PubMed Central: 1764026
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000749
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000749
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 001033
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 001800
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 001800
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 001800
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 003E30
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 003C66
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease</title>
<author><name sortKey="Camitz, Martin" sort="Camitz, Martin" uniqKey="Camitz M" first="Martin" last="Camitz">Martin Camitz</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I1">Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Solna, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Solna</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Solna</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I2">Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Solna, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Solna</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Solna</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="I3">Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Svealand</region>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Stockholm</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="I4">Theoretical Biological Physics, Department of Physics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Theoretical Biological Physics, Department of Physics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Svealand</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liljeros, Fredrik" sort="Liljeros, Fredrik" uniqKey="Liljeros F" first="Fredrik" last="Liljeros">Fredrik Liljeros</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="I3">Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Svealand</region>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Stockholm</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">17166291</idno>
<idno type="pmc">1764026</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1764026</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:1764026</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1186/1741-7015-4-32</idno>
<date when="2006">2006</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000749</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000749</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000749</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000749</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">001033</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">001033</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">001800</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">001800</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">001800</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">003E30</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">003C66</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">003C66</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease</title>
<author><name sortKey="Camitz, Martin" sort="Camitz, Martin" uniqKey="Camitz M" first="Martin" last="Camitz">Martin Camitz</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I1">Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Solna, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Solna</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Solna</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I2">Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Solna, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Solna</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Solna</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="I3">Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Svealand</region>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Stockholm</orgName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="I4">Theoretical Biological Physics, Department of Physics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Theoretical Biological Physics, Department of Physics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Svealand</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liljeros, Fredrik" sort="Liljeros, Fredrik" uniqKey="Liljeros F" first="Fredrik" last="Liljeros">Fredrik Liljeros</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="I3">Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Svealand</region>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Stockholm</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">BMC Medicine</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1741-7015</idno>
<imprint><date when="2006">2006</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Much research in epidemiology has been focused on evaluating conventional methods of control strategies in the event of an epidemic or pandemic. Travel restrictions are often suggested as an efficient way to reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health, but few papers have studied in depth the effects of travel restrictions. In this study, we investigated what effect different levels of travel restrictions might have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="methods"><title>Methods</title>
<p>We used a stochastic simulation model incorporating survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over 3 years. We tested scenarios of travel restrictions in which travel over distances >50 km and 20 km would be banned, taking into account different levels of compliance.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>We found that a ban on journeys >50 km would drastically reduce the speed and geographical spread of outbreaks, even when compliance is < 100%. The result was found to be robust for different rates of intermunicipality transmission intensities.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusion</title>
<p>This study supports travel restrictions as an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future disease outbreak.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Suède</li>
</country>
<region><li>Svealand</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Stockholm</li>
</settlement>
<orgName><li>Université de Stockholm</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree><country name="Suède"><noRegion><name sortKey="Camitz, Martin" sort="Camitz, Martin" uniqKey="Camitz M" first="Martin" last="Camitz">Martin Camitz</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Camitz, Martin" sort="Camitz, Martin" uniqKey="Camitz M" first="Martin" last="Camitz">Martin Camitz</name>
<name sortKey="Camitz, Martin" sort="Camitz, Martin" uniqKey="Camitz M" first="Martin" last="Camitz">Martin Camitz</name>
<name sortKey="Camitz, Martin" sort="Camitz, Martin" uniqKey="Camitz M" first="Martin" last="Camitz">Martin Camitz</name>
<name sortKey="Liljeros, Fredrik" sort="Liljeros, Fredrik" uniqKey="Liljeros F" first="Fredrik" last="Liljeros">Fredrik Liljeros</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 003C66 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 003C66 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= SrasV1 |flux= Main |étape= Exploration |type= RBID |clé= PMC:1764026 |texte= The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a moderately contagious disease }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:17166291" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SrasV1
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |